Lately I've seen some posts where almost everybody guessed a certain gender based on the nub, but than it turned out to be the opposite. How reliable is this whole nub guessing? I know the ladies on here take the guesses very seriously and do their utmost to come up with their best guess, but still.... Can we put any faith in these guesses? It seems like some women do and are devastated because they get so many guesses for the gender they do not prefer. Or they are overjoyed because (almost) everybody guesses the preferred gender, and then they are maybe afterwards disappointed when they find out at their BIG u/s that the baby is the opposite gender anyway.

I got only girl guesses on my baby's nub (ok, CC was not really sure - that must count for something so I did not get all that excited....) and at first I was somewhat confident I would get my girl. But than I read about some really girly looking nubs which turned out to be boys and the other way round.

So to make a long story short, what are the changes nub guesses are truely right? Is it 75%, 80% or maybe 90%? Anybody any idea?

Thx!

Gosh, I have no idea.   I try my best when I "guess" but that's all it is just a guess.   When I posted pics before, I looked for CC reponse, and believed what she says, and if the others supported her then it was a bonus.   I hope nobody makes any real decisions about the baby's gender without a 20week ultrasound.. Anyway that was a good question, and I would love to know an answer too, so here's a BUMP to the top!

I am not sure either, but would also like to know the answer, maybe CC will see this

Hi there!

I definitely don't think we can put a ton of faith in the guesses we get online.  Most of us understand the theory pretty well, yet, we're not medical professionals (except Charliecats) and are making guesses for fun based on what we know.  I don't think any of us ever think we're 100% correct.  Every once in awhile a "classic" boy or girl nub shows up and there really isn't much doubt.  But most of the time, I don't think any of us are totally sure.  I think the basic understanding here is that we're giving educated opinions for fun.  I wouldn't get devastated or elated over any consensus.  Nothing is certain until "the big scan" or birth!

Here is a great site that answers your questions about the percentages.  It was temporarily down at one point, but looks like it's back up.  Yay!

http://baby2see.com/gender/external_genitals.html

I'm going to post some specific info from the site just incase it goes down again.  Here you go:

In the study the angle of the genital tubercle was used to assign fetal gender. At 11 weeks there was an error rate of 50% and only 14 of every 100 was assigned correct male gender. In the male fetuses after 12 weeks, there was a significant increase in the angle of the genital tubercle from the horizontal. The accuracy of sex determination increased with gestation.

(This is why Charliecats always says that it's a little early when people post pictures of their nub prior to hitting the 12 week mark.)

Out of a total of 1619 pregnancies; gender was assigned and confirmed in 1424. The table below shows the results in so far for accuracy of fetal gender prediction at a routine first trimester scan.

Results of 'Angle of the 30 degrees' studies

CONCLUSION:
Prenatal gender assignment by ultrasound has a high accuracy rate at 12 to 14 weeks. At 11 weeks there was an error rate of 50% and only 14/100 assigned correct male gender. In the male fetuses after 12 weeks, there was a significant increase in the angle of the genital tubercle from the horizontal. The accuracy of sex determination increased with gestation.

Thanks mpk3, this info helps. Sure, I know it is for fun, but could not help myself getting a little bit excited when everybody guessed girl. My posting this questing was mainly because I saw a post the other day from a lady that was pretty devastated because everybody predicted the not preferred gender. That is why I wanted to know how reliable nub guessing is.

We are not going to find out the gender before birth. We did try once, but the baby did not really cooporate, so we keep it a surprise. Must say that I am very curious though! Still, I hope all my nub guessers were right!

great article mpk3!

That is about where I would put things too for myself. In addition, my accuracy increases if I do the scan myself (but then again, I am the queen of uptight!)!

Thanks CC. It is a good thing you are uptight about this, it puts things in perspective, at least for me it did!