minervasmom

August 2009 - Posts

• How does BD 3 times sway?

  This month was our first attempt at ttc another dd, and as seems to happen after the best of swaying plans are laid - everything goes awry once you make your first attempt. :) I ovulated 1-2 days earlier than normal, and in fact, in all the time I have been charting, I have only ovulated earlier than this one other time, 3+ years ago. *sigh* (And yeah, I know it would have been smarter to start BD sooner, but I had to keep in mind that 1. I am far, far, far more likely to ovulate late than early, and 2. dh and I are old and tired, lol, and even BD 4 times in a row is a superhuman feat for us to have to accomplish! :) ) So, anyway, I wondered how timing sways if there are only 3 BD times. This is what I found. There were 91 girl charts, and 83 boy charts, resulting in a preference for girls of 52.3%. This is the breakdown of the charts - 3 non-consecutive times including ovulation: 31 boy charts, 34 girl charts (sways girl 52.3%) - 3 consecutive times including ovulation: 6 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways girl 53.8%) - 3 non-consecutive times including O and the day after O: 4 boy charts, 7 girls charts (sways girl 63.6%) - 3 consecutive times including O and the day after O: 3 boy charts, 2 girl charts (sways boy 60%) - 3 non-consecutive times ending before O: 23 boy charts, 26 girl charts (sways girl 53.1%) - 3 consecutive times ending before O: 4 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways girl 60%) - 3 non-consecutive times with NO BD on O but WITH BD the day after O: 12 boy charts, 9 girl charts (sways boy 57.1%) As you can see, there is a small preference for girls, but it is only about 3-4%. (The few high percentages are due solely to having small numbers of charts available for those patterns, and the percentages are not reliable for that reason.) Here are some other ways to look at the numbers. - the BD includes ovulation: 44 boy charts, 50 girl charts (sways girl 53.2%) - the BD doesn't include ovulation: 39 boy charts, 41 girl charts (sways girl 51.25%) - the BD is non-consecutive: 70 boy charts, 76 girl charts (sways girl 52.1%) - the BD is consecutive: 13 boy charts, 15 girl charts (sways girl 53.6%) - BD includes the day after ovulation: 19 boy charts, 18 girl charts (sways boy 51.4%) - BD doesn't include the day after ovulation: 64 boy charts, 73 girl charts (sways girl 53.3%) Note: It may seem a bit odd that girls are favored for everything except for BD that includes the day after ovulation. But the reason for this is simply that there are more girl charts in this sample. Since the results for everything are close to 50/50, almost all of the patterns slightly favor girls. The moral of the story is that if you are planning frequent BD to sway for a girl, it is best to start too early rather than too late (assuming both you and your partner can keep up with the BD schedule!). If you try for frequent BD and get cut short by early ovulation - even by just one day - it does significantly reduce your timing odds for getting a girl. This is yet another reason why it is good to do several effective things to sway. You won't screw up your whole sway if you mess up one part! ;) Posted Aug 30 2009, 04:12 PM by minervasmom with 2 comment(s)

• Update: Does frequent, consecutive BD favor girls?

  With the additional 200 charts, frequent consecutive BD is now showing a small preference for girls - but it still appears to be a much less effective girl timing method than others we have looked at. Frequent, consecutive BD is defined as charts where the BD ended with at least 4 consecutive BD times. So, for instance, if a chart had 5 BD times, starting with 1 day of BD, followed by a gap of one day, followed by 4 days with BD every day, it was included. But if it started with 2 days of BD, followed by a gap of one day, followed by 3 days with BD, it was not included. Also, I counted multiple BD times during one day as separate BD times. So I included charts that had, for instance, 1 day with 1 BD time, followed by a day with 2 BD times, followed by a day with 1 BD time. There was a small preference for girls on the charts with frequent, consecutive BD. There were 57 boy charts and 66 girl charts with this pattern, resulting in a preference of 53.7% for girls. - 4+ consecutive BD times: 57 boy charts, 66 girl charts (sways for girl 53.7%) - 5+ consecutive BD times: 34 boy charts, 37 girl charts (sways for girl 52.1%) - 6+ consecutive BD times: 21 boy charts, 19 girl charts (sways for boy 52.5%) - 7+ consecutive BD times: 10 boy charts, 12 girl charts (sways for girl 54.5%) And here are the actual numbers of charts that had 4, 5, 6, etc. BD times on them: - 4 consecutive BD times: 23 boy charts, 29 girl charts (sways girl 55.8%) - 5 consecutive BD times: 13 boy charts, 18 girl charts (sways girl 58.1%) - 6 consecutive BD times: 11 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways boy 61.1%) - 7 consecutive BD times: 7 boy charts, 9 girl charts (sways girl 56.25%) - 8 consecutive BD times: 2 boy chart, 3 girl charts (sways girl 60%) - 9 consecutive BD times: 1 boy chart, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%) While frequent, consecutive BD favors girls, the degree to which it does so decreases if we look at just the charts that had BD on ovulation. Of these frequent, consecutive BD charts, 53 boy charts and 57 girl charts had BD on the day of ovulation, resulting in a 51.8% preference for girls. This IS a percentage that is greater than chance, but it's not a whole lot greater. Frequent consecutive BD that avoids ovulation still favors girls, but to a much smaller degree than it did previously. 4 boy charts and 9 girl charts in the study had this pattern, which results in a 69.2% preference for girls. Posted Aug 23 2009, 09:04 PM by minervasmom with 1 comment(s)

• Update: Does frequent BD that avoids ovulation favor girls?

  Even though frequent BD through ovulation is pretty much 50/50 overall, frequent BD that AVOIDS ovulation does appear to favor girls. Once again, frequent BD is defined as at least 4 BD times between 5 days prior to ovulation through the day afterward but NO BD on the day of ovulation itself. There were 83 charts with this pattern: 49 girl charts and 34 boy charts, which results in a 59% preference for girls. - 1 day cut-off: 8 boy charts, and 18 girl charts (sways girl 69.2%) - 2 day cut-off: 2 boy charts, and 2 girls charts (50/50) - 1 day cut-off and day after ovulation: 19 boy charts, and 26 girl charts (sways girl 57.8%) - 2 day cut-off and day after ovulation: 4 boy charts, and 3 girl charts (sways boy 57.1%) - 3 day cut-off and day after ovulation: 1 boy chart, and 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%) What is apparent from looking at how the charts break down is that the charts that did not have BD the day after ovulation favored girls to a much stronger extent (10 boy charts and 20 girl charts, favors girls 66.7%) than the charts that had BD the day after ovulation (24 boy charts and 29 girl charts, favors girls 54.7%). Even though I have been repeating this throughout the blog, I will say it yet again: I do NOT think this means that a cut-off and O+12 favors boys. As I've said previously, the FF charts do not tell when ovulation actually occurred, so it is impossible to tell whether any BD times on them are O+12. I suspect that the reason there are more boy charts that had BD the day after ovulation is because in some cases ovulation occurred late on the day of ovulation and the BD happened early the next day, and so the BD the "day after ovulation" was really in boy timing. While frequent BD that avoids ovulation favors girls overall, it sways for girls the most if the 4+ days of frequent BD all occur prior to ovulation. In fact, the current effectiveness rate for this pattern (66.7%) is now running higher than the current effectiveness rate for cut-offs (60.6% for 2-3 day cut-offs). Also, the big plus with this pattern is that it should not significantly reduce the odds of getting pregnant. Posted Aug 23 2009, 01:59 AM by minervasmom with no comments

• Update: Does frequent BD favor girls?

  After adding another 200 charts, frequent BD continues to be a 50/50 timing pattern - however, it does sway for either boys or girls depending on whether the frequent BD includes the day of ovulation. Overall the amount of BD on boy and girl charts is very similar. There were 1220 BD times on the 350 boy charts (average of 3.49 BD times on the boy charts). There were 1253 BD times on the 350 girl charts (average of 3.58 BD times on the girl charts). Since there is no set definition for frequent BD, I chose to define it as at least 4 BD times during the five days prior to ovulation through the day afterwards. 321 charts out of the 700 I looked at followed this pattern, 159 girl charts and 162 boy charts (162/321, sways boy 50.5%). Frequent BD charts: - 4 BD times: 74 boy charts, 69 girl charts (sways boy 51.7%) - 5 BD times: 51 boy charts, 47 girl charts (sways boy 52%) - 6 BD times: 23 boy charts, 28 girl charts (sways girl 54.9%) - 7+ BD times: 14 boy charts, 15 girl charts (sways girl 51.7%) Even though the numbers for frequent BD through ovulation are pretty close to 50/50 for boys and girls, there is one significant detail that makes a difference in how the BD sways: whether there is BD on the day of ovulation. 205 charts with frequent BD had BD on the day of ovulation, 111 boy charts and 94 girl charts, resulting in a 54.1% preference for boys. If the day of ovulation is avoided in frequent BD, though, the preference is for girls. 83 charts followed this pattern, 34 boy charts and 49 girl charts, resulting in a 59% preference for girls. Previously, I said that I didn't think frequent BD through O was the worst swaying method for a girl (and technically it still isn't - there are definitely worse timing methods to use, lol!). However, after looking over the statistics again, I do think frequent BD through ovulation is a worse timing method than I used to think. Before I simply thought that it was 50/50, and that it was better to go with a timing method that actually sways, since there are timing patterns that DO produce more girls and that don't significantly decrease the chance of pregnancy. But in fact, if the frequent BD includes the day of ovulation it is NOT 50/50; it actually sways 54.1% for boys. Obviously, this is not a huge preference for boys, and it is only about 3% more than chance. But it does result in more boys. It does surprise me that frequent BD that includes the day of ovulation is not just 50/50. BD on ovulation in general is running close to 50/50 and one would think that, since frequent BD lowers sperm count, frequent BD at the very least should have the same odds as BD on ovulation in general. I have no theories at this time to explain why frequent BD through ovulation would result in MORE boys that nonfrequent BD through ovulation. If I come up with some explanation, I will update. Posted Aug 22 2009, 05:04 PM by minervasmom with no comments

• Update: Do cut-offs favor girls?

  After looking at another 200 charts, cut-offs still favor girls - but the effectiveness rate for cut-offs has decreased. Overall, there were 34 boy charts and 48 girl charts with cut-offs, which results in a preference for girls of 58.5%. - 2 day cut-off: 19 boy charts, 25 girl charts (sways girl 56.8%) - 3 day cut-off: 7 boy charts, 15 girl charts (sways girl 68.2%) - 4 day cut-off: 3 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways girl 66.7%) - 5 day cut-off: 3 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways boy 75%) - 6 day cut-off: 2 boy charts, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%) - 7 day cut-off: 0 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways girl 100%) Short cut-offs (2-3 days) have a 60.6% effectiveness rate overall, and 3 day cut-offs appear to be the most effective at 68.2%. However, part of the reason why 3 day cut-offs may appear to sway more for girls is because a "2 day cut-off" on the FF charts may really be a less than 48 hour cut-off - if BD took place in the evening and if ovulation occurred in the morning. I still think a 2 day (that is, 48 hour) cut-off is a good timing method. I also kept track of charts that had a 2+ day cut-off, followed by BD the day after ovulation. (Again, please keep in mind that this is NOT the same thing as a cut-off and an O+12. BD the day after ovulation may mean an O+12 - but it may also mean that the BD happened within 12 hours of ovulation if ovulation occurred late in the day on the "day of ovulation," or it may mean the BD occurred long after the egg had died.) There were 20 boy charts and 10 girl charts with this pattern, resulting in a 66.7% preference for boys. - 2 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 11 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways for boy 64.7%) - 3 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 6 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways for boy 66.7%) - 4 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 3 boy charts, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%) - 5 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 0 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways girl 100%) Alas, while these are some of the highest effectiveness rates I have found for boys I cannot recommend a cut-off and then BD the day after ovulation to sway for a boy, lol! The reason, of course, is that I don't know exactly when ovulation is occurring or when BD is occurring so I don't know WHY this pattern is producing such a high rate of boys. What it may suggest is that BD within 12 hours after ovulation favors boys if the most recent previous BD took place 3-5 days before. This would fit with other scientific evidence discussed on IG. But that is the best hypothesis I can come up with to explain the pattern. One more notable thing about cut-offs is that they are not a particularly good way to get pregnant. Only 82 charts out of 700 (11.7%) had a cut-off. Only 16 charts (2.3%) had a cut-off of 4 or more days. Posted Aug 20 2009, 08:16 PM by minervasmom with 1 comment(s)

• Update: Does one-time BD favor boys?

  For as long as I've been doing this study, I've been finding similar numbers of boy and girl charts with one-time BD. Usually there are slightly more boy charts, but after looking at these last 200 charts, I now have slightly more girl charts. 35 girl charts had one-time BD, and 33 boy charts had one-time BD, which results in a 51.5% preference for girls (35/68 charts). However, what was significant was the day the one-time BD occurred on. - 1 day after ovulation: 0 boy charts, 1 girl charts (sways girl 100%) - on the day of ovulation: 7 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways boy 53.8%) - 1 day before ovulation: 15 boy charts, 8 girl charts (sways boys 65.2%) - 2 days before ovulation: 2 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways girl 77.8%) - 3 days before ovulation: 2 boy charts, 5 girl charts (sways girl 71.4%) - 4 days before ovulation: 2 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways girl 75%) - 5 days before ovulation: 3 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways boy 75%) - 6 days before ovulation: 2 boy charts, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%) - 7 days before ovulation: 0 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways girl 100%) Again, a lot of these statistics are questionable because there aren't many charts with one-time BD. However, there is a general trend where BD the day of ovulation or 1 day prior favors boys (22/36, sways boy 61.1%), BD 2-4 days prior to ovulation favors girls (18/24, sways girl 75%), and BD 5+ days prior to ovulation favors boys (5/7, sways boy 71.4%). One-time BD does seem to sway - but how it sways depends on what day the BD occurred on. One-time BD is also not the best way to get pregnant. Out of 700 charts only 68 (9.7% of the charts) had just a single time of BD. Posted Aug 19 2009, 08:32 PM by minervasmom with no comments

• Update: Does BD on ovulation favor boys?

  I've analyzed another 200 charts (100 boy charts and 100 girl charts) since I last posted. I am keeping track of these charts separately from the 500 I originally looked at since I want to see - once I've looked at another 500 charts - if I get similar results to what I found with the first 500. However, I thought I could still update each of the theories I was testing so people could see how these new charts affected my past findings. What I found previously for BD on the day of ovulation is that it slightly sways for boys, but the numbers are pretty much the same as chance. Those findings are still the same after looking at another 200 charts. A majority of all charts - for boys and girls - had BD on the day of ovulation. - 207 boy charts out of 350 (59.1% of all boy charts had BD on ovulation) - 192 girl charts out of 350 (54.9% of all girl charts had BD on ovulation) Out of 399 total charts with BD on the day of ovulation, boys resulted 51.9% of the time (207/399 charts) and girls resulted 48.1% of the time (192/399 charts). While this technically results in more boys, the findings are essentially the same as chance (since the natural birth rate is 51% boys, and 49% girls). It indicates that simply BD on the day of ovulation does not sway. One thing that does sway a little bit is the kind of cm present on the day of ovulation. If there is ewcm (eggwhite OR watery cm) on the day of ovulation, boys are a little more likely to result. - 152 boy charts out of 281 charts w/ewcm on ovulation (54.1%) - 129 girl charts out of 281 charts w/ewcm on ovulation (45.9%) If there is NOT ewcm present (if it is sticky or creamy, or there is no cm present), girls are a little more likely to result. - 55 boy charts out of 118 charts with NO ewcm on ovulation (46.6%) - 63 girl charts out of 118 charts with NO ewcm on ovulation (53.4%) Still the influence of cm has dropped as I've continued to look at more charts and the results aren't substantially different from chance. So what does all this mean for swaying? BD on ovulation in no way guarantees a boy, and it doesn't ruin the chances of having a girl. A majority of all charts have BD on ovulation, and simply BD on ovulation results in odds of a particular gender that are essentially the same as chance. Just BD on ovulation in general seems to have little to no impact on the gender that results. Posted Aug 19 2009, 07:05 PM by minervasmom with no comments