minervasmom

July 2009 - Posts

  • More on frequent BD that avoids ovulation

    Since I've gotten some questions about the "frequent BD that avoids ovulation" timing method, I thought I would look a little closer into which charts that followed this pattern seemed to work best for girls.

     

    Again, this pattern is defined as at least 4 BD times between 5 days prior to ovulation through the day afterward but NO BD on the day of ovulation itself. There were 58 charts with this pattern: 33 girl charts, and 25 boy charts, which results in a 56.9% preference for girls. (If you've been following this blog, you may have noticed that this is a different total than I gave previously. Yup, even though I double and triple check this information before sharing it with people, I'm still capable of goofing up and losing 11 charts. *sigh* At least the error is fixed now.)

    - 1 day cut-off: 3 boy charts, and 13 girl charts (sways girl 81.25%)

    - 2 day cut-off: 1 boy chart, and 2 girl charts (sways girl 66.7%)

    - 1 day cut-off and day after ovulation: 17 boy charts, and 16 girl charts (sways boy 51.5%)

    - 2 day cut-off and day after ovulation: 4 boy charts, and 2 girl charts (sways boy 66.7%)

     

    What is obvious from looking at how the charts break down is that the charts that did not have BD the day after ovulation clearly favored girls (4 boy charts and 15 girl charts, favors girls 78.9%), and the charts that had BD the day after ovulation favored boys (21 boy charts and 18 girl charts, favors boys 55.3%).

     

    Please note that I do NOT think this means that a cut-off and O+12 favors boys. As I've said before, the FF charts do not tell when ovulation actually occurred, so it's impossible to tell whether any BD times on them are O+12. I suspect that the reason there were more boy charts that had BD the day after ovulation is because in some cases ovulation occurred late on the day of ovulation and the BD happened early the next day and so the BD the "day after ovulation" was really in boy timing.

     

    If BD "the day after ovulation" is avoided, frequent BD that avoids ovulation favors girls very strongly. Unfortunately, there are fewer than 20 charts with this pattern so the effectiveness rate is probably quite a lot lower than the 78.9% it is showing right now. However, despite the uncertainty about exactly how effective this timing method really is, I still feel comfortable enough with it that it is the one I plan to use in my sway.

  • Summing it up

    In this post, I will sum up the timing patterns that I think are effective and worth trying based on my timing study.

    Note: Please do keep in mind that the numbers for most of these patterns are relatively low. I do not in any way consider this study conclusive, and I would love to be looking at thousands of charts rather than hundreds, and have hundreds of charts for each pattern rather than 15 or 25 or 50. However, I am just one person and only have so much free time to do this, so it will be a while before I amass the number of charts I'd like to have to feel really comfortable with the results. As with all studies, conclusions are most reliable when they are repeated and confirmed by other studies. Unfortunately, there seems to be very little research on timing, and so in the absence of more "scientific" evidence, hopefully this can help provide some information about whether the popular timing methods advocated for swaying really work as people claim they do.

    For TTC a boy

    There may appear to be a bias in my study for timing patterns that favor girls. However, the reason for that is there are a lot more theories about timing for girls than for boys. The only boy theories I'm aware of are: BD on ovulation favors boys (according to my study, overall BD on ovulation doesn't sway), very little BD favors boys (again, my study indicates that one time BD doesn't sway), and BD once the day of ovulation or the day before favors boys.

    This last theory is the most popular boy timing pattern, and according to my research, it DOES favor boys. Charts with one-time BD the day of and day before ovulation swayed for boys 66.7%. The percentages were a little higher for the day prior to ovulation (68.8%) than the day of (63.6%). However, I don't think this means that it is necessarily better to BD the day before ovulation. It is possible that the lower effectiveness rate on the day of ovulation is due to some of the charts really being O+12 charts, if ovulation occurred early in the day and the BD occurred in the evening.

    Since there were only 27 charts with this pattern, the effectiveness rate might drop when more charts are found. However, for now, this timing method looks like an effective way to sway for a boy.

    For TTC a girl

    For girls, there are 3 popular timing theories: O+12, cut-offs, and frequent BD through ovulation.

    For the reasons stated in my first post, I couldn't test O+12 using charts on Fertility Friend. However, if my understanding of the one study from the FAQ on O+12 is correct, it has a 66% effectiveness rate for girls. I don't know how many individuals were included in the study (obviously, the more individuals in the study, the more reliable the results are), and I don't know if there are other studies supporting a 66% effectiveness rate for O+12. But if the 66% effectiveness rate is correct, then O+12 is most effective timing method for ttc a girl.

    Cut-offs of at least two days are also effective according to my research. If someone is doing a cut-off, I think it is wisest to limit the cut-off to 2-3 days, since cut-offs of 2 days and 3 days had the highest effectiveness rates for girls (59.4% and 73.3% respectively, and there were 47 charts with 2 or 3 day cut-offs). 4 day cut-offs also favored girls in my study - but the number of charts with that pattern are very low (7 total), and so I don't trust that cut-offs that long are good for girls, especially when there is other information indicating that long cut-offs may favor boys.

    The last popular girl timing method, frequent BD through ovulation was NOT supported by my research. I found absolutely no evidence that more BD favored girls, and the odds were pretty close to 50/50 no matter how frequent the BD was. I also had quite a lot of charts with frequent BD on them - 232. Obviously, I'm still not looking at thousands of charts with a particular pattern, but this is still a substantial number of charts. The ineffectiveness of frequent BD for swaying for a girl is one of the conclusions that is best supported by my study.

    On the other hand, if the frequent BD avoided ovulation, it resulted in girls 56.9% of the time. There were 58 charts with this pattern. While frequent BD that avoids ovulation has the lowest effectiveness rate of these 3 timing methods, there are some extra benefits to this method - and it is the timing method I plan to use when I sway.

    First of all, even though O+12 appears to be a very effective timing method, it works best for younger women. As women get older, their eggs don't live as long. I will be 35 when we start ttc, and so I have my doubts that any eggs I produce will live long enough to be fertilized after 12+ hours. I could be wrong, but I don't want to gamble for several months on a timing method that has a high probability of not working.

    Second, cut-offs are also effective, but they have some drawbacks. If you don't have regular cycles it can be difficult to predict when it is going to be 2 or 3 days before you ovulate. My cycles are relatively regular - but I never know for sure which day I will ovulate, and it can vary quite a bit. The other problem is that the farther away from ovulation that you BD, the harder it is to get pregnant. Only 11.8% of the charts I looked at had a cut-off of 2 or more days. Cut-offs are NOT the ideal way to get pregnant quickly. For some people, getting pregnant quickly may not matter. But many of us, for one reason or another, don't feel like we have the leisure to spend months and years on ttc methods that have a low rate of success.

    Frequent BD that avoids ovulation avoids these problems. Thanks to OPKs, it is usually much easier to predict 1 day before ovulation than 2 or 3 days. And if you BD up to 1 day before you ovulate, that increases your chances of getting pregnant. Swaying is hard work, and it is difficult to stick to for months without getting pregnant. For that reason, I think it is wisest to pick a swaying method that is effective but also increases the odds of conceiving.

    Final Thoughts

    So there you have it: 1 effective timing method for ttc a boy, and 2 effective timing methods for girls (plus a third that I believe is effective but couldn't study).

    One of the main things doing this research impressed upon me is that swaying is in NO WAY a guarantee of getting the gender of your choice. All of the "effective" timing methods produce a lot of opposites, and none of them has a greater than 70% effectiveness rate. For this reason, I feel very strongly that it is important to do more than one "effective" thing to sway. I didn't do this study because I think timing is the "most important" element of swaying. While I believe timing is important, I also think many other things like ph, diet, minerals, hormones, etc. are also very important. The more factors that you can incorporate into your sway, the more likely you will be successful.

    I'm still not done with this study and plan to continue analyzing charts from FF. But what I am going to do now is start over with another 500 charts, and see if after I've looked at 500 more charts, if I reach the same conclusions that I did with this first study. Most likely with this second study, I will only be looking timing, though, since as I've stated earlier, I've come to think that the information about cm on FF isn't very useful. Once I've looked at 200 or so charts, I will start updating this blog with the new information I've found.

    I hope people have found this information interesting and helpful. Good luck to all of you in your efforts to conceive the gender of your choice!

  • Theory #5C: Does frequent, consecutive BD that avoids ovulation favor girls?

    In my last post, I described how I found that frequent, consecutive BD (at least 4 BD times, at least once a day) that avoided ovulation had a shockingly high effectiveness rate for girls (87.5%). While I never thought a timing method could be anywhere close to 90% effective, I did wonder if this might be another good girl timing pattern. Unfortunately, it's not a particularly popular pattern - only 8 charts in my study follow it. Since 8 charts isn't enough to prove much of anything, I've been trying to track down more charts that follow this pattern to see if it really does result in a substantial preference for girls.

    I have managed to track down 9 more charts with this pattern, bringing the grand total I have up to 17: 8 charts in the study, 6 charts I saved from the chart gallery that are going to be added to the study, and 3 random charts from Fertility Friend. Unfortunately, adding the new charts has dropped the effectiveness rate of this timing pattern substantially.

    Out of the 17 charts, there are 9 girl charts, 7 boy charts, and 1 chart where the gender is so far unknown. This results in an effectiveness rate of 56.25% for girls.
    - 4 consecutive BD times: 4 boy charts, 4 girl charts, 1 unknown (50/50)
    - 5 consecutive BD times: 1 boy chart, 5 girl charts (sways girl 83.3%)
    - 6 consecutive BD times: 2 boy charts, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%)
    (Note: On the above charts, I counted the number of consecutive BD times in total that occurred on the charts - not just on the 5 days prior to ovulation like I did in my main study.)

    So this pattern still favors girls, but not by a very strong margin, particularly considering there are only 16 charts with the pattern available. But, despite the small number of charts in the sample and the fact that the effectiveness rate is much smaller now than it was just looking at the charts in my study, I'm still inclined to think that this may be a good timing method. The main reason is that frequent BD that avoids ovulation in general has a 60% effectiveness rate for girls, and I really doubt that consecutive BD would be LESS effective than non-consecutive BD.

    I will continue looking for charts with this pattern and will update as more information becomes available.

    ***UPDATE***

    The unknown chart is a girl chart, bringing the grand total to 10 girl charts and 7 boy charts, which results in a 58.8% preference for girls.